Tue, Dec 10, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 09 | 013 | 03 | 3 | 136 |
| BUF | 011 | 118 | 06 | 01 | 4 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:15BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 2. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 5. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 6. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 7. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 8. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 9. BUF Luke Adam stopped
- 10. OTT Cory Conacher stopped
- 11. BUF Brian Flynn scored
- 12. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 13. BUF Steve Ott scored
- 14. OTT Milan Michalek scored
- 15. BUF Matt D'Agostini stopped
- 16. OTT Patrick Wiercioch stopped
- 17. BUF Marcus Foligno stopped
- 18. OTT Clarke MacArthur stopped
- 19. BUF Zemgus Girgensons scored
- 20. OTT Erik Condra stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:49BUFMatt Moulson: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:03BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:25BUFLuke Adam: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:14OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:30OTTJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:57OTTMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Conacher – Zibanejad2:28
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – MacArthur – Ryan10:10
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Zibanejad3:22
xG 0.07–0.19 (25%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith5:37
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Corvo12:38
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Wiercioch – Cowen11:42
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:26
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- McCormick – Scott – Flynn4:08
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Adam11:53
xG 0.14–0.54 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Foligno11:21
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain16:53
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Myers15:32
xG 0.50–0.70 (42%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
- McNabb – Pysyk10:24
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).