Tue, Dec 10, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Washington Capitals 6 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 312 | 19 | 115 | 06 | 2 | 542 |
| WSH | 17 | 313 | 17 | 04 | 3 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Sami Salo, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:49TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 11:07TBLNate ThompsonAssists: JT Brown, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P1 14:15WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 6:24WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 12:41TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–2
- P2 16:38WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P2 18:48WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 8:36TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Tyler Johnson, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 19:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. WSH Eric Fehr scored
- 2. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 7. WSH Mikhail Grabovski scored
- 8. TBL Teddy Purcell scored
- 9. WSH Troy Brouwer scored
- 10. TBL Ondrej Palat stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:14WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:14WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:07WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:42WSHMike Green: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:42WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:25TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:35TBLEric Brewer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:32WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:31TBLRichard Panik: Boarding5 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Erat won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:13
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown7:09
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn12:50
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas10:25
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Salo – Brewer6:11
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Brewer – Barberio2:34
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Grabovski – Brouwer9:53
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson9:47
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson3:01
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward10:43
xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner11:26
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Carlson – Schmidt3:31
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Alzner – Oleksy3:12
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).