Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 06 | 010 | 05 | 0 | 129 |
| TBL | 06 | 110 | 011 | 00 | 1 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04DETKyle QuinceyAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 19:16TBLNikita KucherovAssists: JT Brown · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 4. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 5. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 6. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 7. TBL Matt Carle stopped
- 8. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 9. TBL Tyler Johnson stopped
- 10. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 11. TBL Martin St. Louis scored
- 12. DET Johan Franzen stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:41TBLOndrej Palat: Holding2 min
- P1 18:09DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:06TBLMark Barberio: Holding2 min
- P2 9:46DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:24TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:21DETTomas Tatar: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 16:32TBLAndrej Sustr: Interference2 min
- P3 19:17DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Tatar11:17
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Franzen – Nyquist9:36
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Abdelkader11:52
xG 0.59–0.63 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Emmerton3:49
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith13:11
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff8:23
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Quincey – Kindl2:29
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Purcell – Killorn11:50
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:20
xG 0.47–0.59 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown10:11
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas11:58
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Salo – Taormina8:06
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brewer – Barberio2:22
xG 0.02–0.07 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).