Sat, Dec 14, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 013 | 17 | 11 | 226 |
| BUF | 011 | 08 | 18 | 00 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:40BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 8:19CGYPaul ByronAssists: Chris Butler, David Jones · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- OT 0:42CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:13CGYLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P1 3:36BUFBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P1 5:09CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P1 7:53BUFJohn Scott: Interference2 min
- P1 18:01CGYJiri Hudler: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:42BUFMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42CGYDavid Jones: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:27CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17BUFMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:58BUFMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 18:57CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMcGrattan – Colborne – Bouma4:52
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak9:33
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Hudler – Glencross – Monahan10:20
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Jones – Byron – Backlund9:05
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Smid11:48
xG 0.35–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Butler8:01
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Butler2:14
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:16
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Ellis – D'Agostini – Leino5:44
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Leino2:21
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Foligno4:00
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain13:11
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Myers14:17
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Weber – McNabb9:33
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).