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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 15, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York

Calgary Flames 3, New York Rangers 4 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Rangers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.

NYR winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY2110316013321
NYR16112110044432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:28CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Kris Russell, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:00CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–0
  3. P1 15:25NYRDerek StepanAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:29NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Dominic Moore · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:44CGYSean MonahanAssists: Curtis Glencross, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P3 12:07NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Brian Boyle · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
  2. 2. CGY Joe Colborne scored
  3. 3. NYR Rick Nash stopped
  4. 4. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
  5. 5. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
  6. 6. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
  7. 7. NYR Brad Richards scored
  8. 8. CGY Lee Stempniak scored
  9. 9. NYR Derick Brassard stopped
  10. 10. CGY Michael Cammalleri stopped
  11. 11. NYR Dominic Moore scored
  12. 12. CGY Paul Byron scored
  13. 13. NYR Benoit Pouliot scored
  14. 14. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 1:54CGYBlair Jones: Illegal check to head2 min
  2. P1 7:23NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:27CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
  4. P2 9:07NYRJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 9:07CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:50NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
  7. P2 14:19NYRDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 14:19CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 9:48NYRDylan McIlrath: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 16:04CGYMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 16:44CGYKarri Ramo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  12. P3 18:04NYRChris Kreider: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
48% to win52% to win
← CGY attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYNYR
21Shots on goal32
1.8Expected goals2.2
43Shot attempts76
28Faceoffs won39
5Power plays4
15Penalty minutes17
30Hits23
29Blocked shots13
5Giveaways13
5Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestHudler – Glencross – Monahan10:36

    xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 4–19goals 2–0

  2. McGrattan – Colborne – Bouma5:19

    xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  3. Jones – Byron – Backlund9:58

    xG 0.13–0.14 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

  4. Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak13:55

    xG 0.16–0.62 (20%)attempts 9–22goals 0–3

Defence pairs

  1. bestO'Brien – Butler8:06

    xG 0.60–0.44 (57%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1

  2. Butler – Brodie2:19

    xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Giordano – Smid13:32

    xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestNash – Stepan – Kreider13:08

    xG 0.71–0.12 (85%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0

  2. Moore – Pouliot – Hagelin4:26

    xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0

  3. Richards – Brassard – Zuccarello13:27

    xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1

  4. Moore – Pouliot – Dorsett2:57

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestFalk – Moore4:34

    xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  2. Girardi – Del Zotto8:37

    xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0

  3. Moore – McIlrath2:43

    xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 2.2 xGCGY 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #167 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.08 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.

NYR winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).