Thu, Dec 19, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Nashville Predators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 213 | 09 | 230 |
| TBL | 211 | 27 | 015 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Jean-Philippe Cote · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:06TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Sami Salo, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 6:36NSHCraig SmithAssists: Matt Cullen, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:27TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:02NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 13:51TBLRichard PanikAssists: Eric Brewer, Andrej Sustr · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:01TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:01NSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:53TBLRadko Gudas: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:48TBLNate Thompson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:43NSHCraig Smith: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 2:49NSHMatt Hendricks: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:36TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:27TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:36NSHViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:13NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:19TBLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Spaling3:26
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Spaling – Smith3:48
xG 0.14–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Stalberg9:27
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque5:36
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Bartley4:08
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:26
xG 0.42–0.76 (35%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Bartley – Jones7:36
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:38
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn11:19
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown6:37
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Panik2:15
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCote – Hedman3:01
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman9:38
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Sustr7:35
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).