Fri, Dec 27, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 215 | 05 | 113 | 02 | 0 | 335 |
| TOR | 010 | 317 | 011 | 04 | 1 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–0
- P1 7:53BUFJohn ScottAssists: Matt Ellis · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 11:38TORJake GardinerAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:25TORPeter HollandAssists: Mason Raymond, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 19:43TORPhil KesselPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.43 xG2–3
- P3 19:35BUFSteve OttPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 3. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 4. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 5. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 6. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:09BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16BUFJohn Scott: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:19BUFLinus Omark: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:09TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Stafford – Flynn11:49
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons14:38
xG 1.34–1.42 (49%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Omark – Leino – Foligno8:14
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Ellis – D'Agostini – Scott11:07
xG 0.44–1.17 (27%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – McBain14:20
xG 1.35–0.66 (67%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Myers19:01
xG 1.32–1.05 (56%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – McBain3:10
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri14:13
xG 1.47–0.39 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Holland12:37
xG 1.52–0.47 (76%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Smithson – Orr – D'Amigo4:31
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Clarkson – Kulemin14:57
xG 0.35–1.20 (23%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Rielly15:31
xG 0.76–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson16:08
xG 1.32–1.17 (53%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner18:23
xG 1.25–1.33 (48%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).