Sat, Dec 28, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 4, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 011 | 213 | 431 |
| FLA | 012 | 210 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47DETDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:29DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 12:52FLASean BergenheimPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 14:59FLANick BjugstadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 0:42DETBrendan SmithAssists: Kyle Quincey · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 1:20DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Jakub Kindl, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 4:27FLASean BergenheimAssists: Dylan Olsen, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:35FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:37DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:54DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:45FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:51DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:37FLATomas Kopecky: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:05FLANick Bjugstad: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:16DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:04DETBrian Lashoff: Holding2 min
- P3 14:00DETKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Nyquist – Tatar6:26
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:39
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Glendening5:43
xG 0.13–0.17 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Jurco8:34
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff5:23
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith11:08
xG 0.36–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith3:59
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:22
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov8:15
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias7:49
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Hayes – Shore4:59
xG 0.17–0.45 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Gilbert14:34
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Olsen – Petrovic8:52
xG 0.50–0.58 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Weaver – Kulikov10:56
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).