Wed, Jan 1, 2014·Michigan Stadium, Ann ArborOutdoor game
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 113 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 326 |
| DET | 013 | 114 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:14DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 19:23TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:41TORTyler BozakAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.00 xG2–1
- P3 14:28DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brendan Smith · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 2. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 3. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 4. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 5. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 6. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:39DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:04TORJoffrey Lupul: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:21TORDion Phaneuf: Holding2 min
- P2 13:36TORJay McClement: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:23DETJakub Kindl: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 11:45TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:35
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri10:06
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- McClement – Clarkson – Kulemin10:31
xG 0.02–0.43 (4%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:52
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Ranger – Rielly8:06
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner13:37
xG 0.06–0.32 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Glendening5:58
xG 0.38–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Zetterberg – Nyquist10:14
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar3:21
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Eaves – Glendening2:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith5:04
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff12:25
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:36
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).