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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 1, 2014·Michigan Stadium, Ann ArborOutdoor game

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.

DET winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:33Shot by Eaves, saved by Bernier
  3. P1 3:58Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  4. P1 5:09Shot by Tatar, saved by Bernier
  5. P1 5:16Shot by Smith, saved by Bernier
  6. P1 6:39Abdelkader: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Abdelkader, Smith · TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  7. P1 7:06Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard4v5
  8. P1 7:07Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard4v5
  9. P1 9:09Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Bernier
  10. P1 10:37Shot by Gardiner, saved by Howard
  11. P1 11:04Shot by Cleary, saved by Bernier
  12. P1 11:04Lupul: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Cleary, Eaves, Kindl, Lashoff, Glendening · TOR Ranger, Lupul, Raymond, Kadri, Rielly

  13. P1 11:27Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bernier5v4
  14. P1 11:38Shot by Datsyuk, saved by Bernier5v4
  15. P1 11:43Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bernier5v4
  16. P1 11:56Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bernier5v4
  17. P1 13:03Shot by Cleary, saved by Bernier5v4
  18. P1 16:21Phaneuf: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Abdelkader, Smith · TOR McClement, Phaneuf, Clarkson, Kulemin, Gunnarsson

  19. P1 16:45Shot by Kindl, saved by Bernier5v4
  20. P1 18:12Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Bernier5v4
  21. P1 19:01Shot by Miller, saved by Bernier
  22. P1 19:19Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 2:19Shot by Tatar, saved by Bernier
  26. P2 2:33Shot by Miller, saved by Bernier
  27. P2 3:23Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Bernier
  28. P2 3:29Shot by Lashoff, saved by Bernier
  29. P2 4:27Shot by Kadri, saved by Howard
  30. P2 4:51Shot by Datsyuk, saved by Bernier
  31. P2 5:35Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  32. P2 6:18Shot by McClement, saved by Howard
  33. P2 6:27Shot by Ranger, saved by Howard
  34. P2 6:41Shot by Nyquist, saved by Bernier
  35. P2 8:25Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  36. P2 12:23Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Howard
  37. P2 12:28Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  38. P2 12:35Shot by Kadri, saved by Howard
  39. P2 13:14Goal by Alfredsson (Zetterberg, Nyquist)+25 pts WP

    On ice: DET Alfredsson, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Smith, Nyquist · TOR Lupul, Raymond, Franson, Gardiner, Kadri

  40. P2 13:32Shot by Miller, saved by Bernier
  41. P2 13:36McClement: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Alfredsson, Zetterberg, Kindl, Nyquist, Lashoff · TOR McClement, Ranger, Clarkson, Kulemin, Rielly

  42. P2 14:29Shot by Nyquist, saved by Bernier5v4
  43. P2 14:37Shot by Nyquist, saved by Bernier5v4
  44. P2 15:02Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bernier5v4
  45. P2 15:36Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bernier5v4
  46. P2 16:46Shot by Glendening, saved by Bernier
  47. P2 17:07Shot by Gardiner, saved by Howard
  48. P2 17:23Kindl: Closing hand on puck (2 min)

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Kindl, Abdelkader, Andersson, Lashoff · TOR Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri, Rielly

  49. P2 18:38Shot by Raymond, saved by Howard4v5
  50. P2 19:10Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howard4v5
  51. P2 19:21Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Howard4v5
  52. P2 19:23Goal by van Riemsdyk (Kessel, Phaneuf)+26 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Miller, Andersson, DeKeyser · TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  53. P2 19:59Shot by Quincey, saved by Bernier
  54. P2 0:00Period end
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:17Shot by Miller, saved by Bernier
  57. P3 2:35Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howard
  58. P3 3:14Shot by DeKeyser, saved by Bernier
  59. P3 4:36Shot by Gardiner, saved by Howard
  60. P3 4:41Goal by Bozak (Phaneuf)+26 pts WP

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Datsyuk, Quincey, Abdelkader, DeKeyser · TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  61. P3 5:02Shot by Kindl, saved by Bernier
  62. P3 6:06Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard
  63. P3 6:30Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bernier
  64. P3 7:01Shot by Glendening, saved by Bernier
  65. P3 7:26Shot by Miller, saved by Bernier
  66. P3 7:33Shot by DeKeyser, saved by Bernier
  67. P3 9:31Shot by Rielly, saved by Howard
  68. P3 11:45van Riemsdyk: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: DET Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Quincey, Abdelkader, Tatar, DeKeyser · TOR McClement, Ranger, Phaneuf, Kessel, Kulemin

  69. P3 13:23Shot by Kronwall, saved by Bernier5v4
  70. P3 13:36Shot by Nyquist, saved by Bernier5v4
  71. P3 13:46Shot by Tatar, saved by Bernier
  72. P3 14:28Goal by Abdelkader (Smith)+34 pts WP

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Datsyuk, Quincey, Abdelkader, Smith · TOR Ranger, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak

  73. P3 14:44Shot by Miller, saved by Bernier
  74. P3 14:51Shot by Cleary, saved by Bernier
  75. P3 17:01Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howard
  76. P3 18:28Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Bernier
  77. P3 0:00Period end
  78. OT 0:00Period start
  79. OT 0:32Shot by Tatar, saved by Bernier4v4
  80. OT 2:18Shot by Lupul, saved by Howard4v4
  81. OT 3:41Shot by Datsyuk, saved by Bernier4v4
  82. OT 4:27Shot by Franson, saved by Howard4v4
  83. OT 5:00Period end
  84. SO Period start
  85. SO Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Howardother
  86. SO Goal by Datsyuk, unassistedother
  87. SO Goal by Lupul, unassistedother
  88. SO Shot by Tatar, saved by Bernierother
  89. SO Goal by Bozak, unassistedother
  90. SO Period end
  91. SO Final