Thu, Jan 2, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 05 | 18 | 120 |
| MIN | 08 | 315 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:33MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Matt Cooke, Justin Fontaine · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:19MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 16:09MINJason ZuckerAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 18:48BUFTyler MyersAssists: Matt Ellis, Mike Weber · Deflected, 0.45 xG1–3
- P3 19:34MINKyle BrodziakENAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:20MINRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:47MINMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:30BUFMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00BUFMatt Moulson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:31BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:07MINDany Heatley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:43BUFJamie McBain: Interference2 min
- P3 2:09MINClayton Stoner: Interference2 min
- P3 4:45BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45MINClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – D'Agostini – Ennis2:57
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Omark – Foligno – Larsson5:44
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ellis – D'Agostini – Scott4:59
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons8:12
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Weber – Myers11:40
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Sulzer – McBain12:00
xG 0.12–0.58 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk11:18
xG 0.12–0.61 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Pominville9:56
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Cooke – Coyle – Fontaine7:44
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Veilleux – Brodziak – Mitchell6:21
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – Granlund – Niederreiter8:35
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Brodin11:55
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:06
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Stoner – Prosser10:37
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).