Sat, Jan 4, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 5, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 313 | 15 | 19 | 527 |
| DAL | 120 | 015 | 010 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04DETHenrik ZetterbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:47DALShawn HorcoffSHAssists: Rich Peverley · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:05DETJoakim AnderssonGWGAssists: Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 18:19DETDrew MillerAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Tip-in, 0.35 xG3–1
- P2 11:57DETTomas TatarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 12:39DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Daniel Cleary · Slap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:30DETAlexey Marchenko: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:28DALJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:48DETDaniel Cleary: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:48DALAntoine Roussel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:02DALBrenden Dillon: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 4:14DETLuke Glendening: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:23DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:19DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:28DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:41DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
- P3 8:32DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:23DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Miller – Abdelkader5:23
xG 0.98–0.55 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Zetterberg – Nyquist10:42
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Andersson – Tatar3:41
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Cleary – Eaves – Glendening8:17
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Marchenko10:37
xG 1.22–0.64 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Kindl – Lashoff9:42
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Quincey – Smith2:13
xG 0.04–0.36 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:16
xG 0.82–0.57 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt5:14
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Horcoff – Fiddler4:56
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Nichushkin2:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (5%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGaunce – Benn2:35
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dillon13:39
xG 1.04–0.67 (61%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Connauton8:24
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).