Sat, Jan 18, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 214 | 313 | 05 | 532 |
| TBL | 313 | 110 | 06 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:46SJSMatt NietoAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:56TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:52SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Matt Nieto, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 15:44TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Jean-Philippe Cote, Ben Bishop · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 19:30TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: JT Brown, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 2:07TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 12:48SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 13:09SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–4
- P2 19:00SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Matt Irwin, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:39SJSTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:49SJSEriah Hayes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:29TBLBen Bishop: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:11SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:01TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:50TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:50SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:50SJSAndrew Desjardins: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:50TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:57SJSMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wingels won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Wingels – Nieto11:49
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Sheppard – McCarthy – Hayes6:27
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Desjardins – Kearns8:50
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Braun14:20
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Demers7:18
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Boyle – Irwin12:27
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kucherov – Brown8:39
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat14:32
xG 0.97–0.67 (59%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Malone – Panik2:13
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn11:09
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman9:25
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Barberio10:05
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas2:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).