Sun, Jan 19, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 18 | 07 | 125 |
| NYR | 39 | 111 | 06 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10NYRRick NashUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:06NYRRick NashPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 17:49NYRDerek StepanAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 0:59WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 2:25NYRRyan CallahanSHAssists: Dominic Moore, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.52 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:26NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:24WSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:47WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:26NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:22NYRDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:22WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:21WSHMartin Erat: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:49WSHMartin Erat: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:03NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Ward – Laich4:38
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Grabovski – Brouwer2:11
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson8:22
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Chimera – Grabovski – Brouwer5:06
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov12:21
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Erskine – Carrick10:04
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Erskine – Green2:41
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin7:37
xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider7:13
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Boyle – Callahan – Hagelin2:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello8:56
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto2:00
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Moore14:02
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman15:23
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).