Mon, Jan 20, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 112 | 39 | 528 |
| PIT | 014 | 010 | 112 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46FLADrew ShoreSHAssists: Scott Clemmensen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:34FLADrew ShoreGWGAssists: Jesse Winchester, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 1:17FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Jesse Winchester, Marcel Goc · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 5:11PITMatt NiskanenAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 13:50FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 14:02FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jesse Winchester, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:08FLATom Gilbert: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:51FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:51PITTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:32PITTanner Glass: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:47PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:42PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:41FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:16PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:16FLAMike Weaver: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:35PITBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:35FLASean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:26FLAScottie Upshall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov13:01
xG 1.19–0.21 (85%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad5:54
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau2:06
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Matthias – Hayes – Shore4:56
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert12:42
xG 0.88–0.13 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov14:11
xG 1.13–1.25 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal5:37
xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Glass – Sutter5:03
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Glass – Sutter2:52
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Kunitz – Crosby2:21
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta11:22
xG 1.08–0.62 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Scuderi – Orpik2:15
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin12:34
xG 0.64–0.96 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).