Tue, Jan 21, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 116 | 27 | 214 | 537 |
| NYR | 212 | 18 | 013 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02NYRRick NashAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:07NYRRick NashAssists: Dan Girardi, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 17:22NYIMatt MartinAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:34NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brad Richards · Tip-in, 0.40 xG1–3
- P2 13:22NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 16:36NYIColin McDonaldAssists: John Tavares, Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 15:22NYIThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:53NYIFrans NielsenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:34NYRMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P1 17:57NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37NYRBenoit Pouliot: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00NYIKyle Okposo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:10NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03NYRBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:54NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:25NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Regin – Bailey6:11
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares12:51
xG 1.10–0.99 (53%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:26
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson5:41
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hickey11:45
xG 1.04–0.47 (69%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Strait – MacDonald14:25
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Donovan – de Haan13:08
xG 0.72–0.62 (54%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello8:40
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider10:47
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo5:51
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin12:00
xG 0.44–0.71 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Moore7:29
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:48
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman11:42
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).