Thu, Jan 23, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 16 | 116 | 02 | 0 | 336 |
| TBL | 117 | 19 | 15 | 07 | 1 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:32TBLTyler JohnsonSHAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:12OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:30TBLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:57OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 5:31TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:42OTTChris NeilAssists: Zack Smith, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 3. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 5. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 6. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:04OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:04TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:07TBLMark Barberio: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:21TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07TBLTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:56OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- OT 3:09OTTCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Conacher – Da Costa4:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Condra – Smith6:11
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:34
xG 0.69–0.65 (52%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad5:56
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen24:01
xG 0.96–0.52 (65%)attempts 31–15goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:15
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch9:00
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kucherov – Brown4:49
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn14:44
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat14:27
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Filppula – Kucherov – Brown2:20
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman11:44
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Aulie – Hedman2:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Salo – Aulie2:57
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).