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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 23, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:17Shot by Spezza, saved by Bishop
  3. P1 0:30Shot by Palat, saved by Anderson
  4. P1 0:51Shot by Purcell, saved by Anderson
  5. P1 0:58Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  6. P1 1:55Shot by Brown, saved by Anderson
  7. P1 1:58Shot by Brown, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 2:26Shot by Crombeen, saved by Anderson
  9. P1 3:08Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson
  10. P1 3:40Shot by Killorn, saved by Anderson
  11. P1 3:52Shot by Killorn, saved by Anderson
  12. P1 3:58Shot by Brewer, saved by Anderson
  13. P1 4:04Neil: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Malone, Crombeen, Barberio · OTT Neil, Greening, Gryba, Wiercioch, Da Costa

  14. P1 4:04Crombeen: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Malone, Crombeen, Barberio · OTT Neil, Greening, Gryba, Wiercioch, Da Costa

  15. P1 5:29Shot by Smith, saved by Bishop
  16. P1 5:46Shot by Spezza, saved by Bishop
  17. P1 6:22Shot by Salo, saved by Anderson
  18. P1 7:21Shot by Brewer, saved by Anderson
  19. P1 8:16Shot by Palat, saved by Anderson
  20. P1 8:24Shot by Aulie, saved by Anderson
  21. P1 8:29Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson
  22. P1 8:48Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bishop
  23. P1 9:02Shot by Killorn, saved by Anderson
  24. P1 9:28Shot by Ceci, saved by Bishop
  25. P1 11:07Barberio: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Malone, Filppula, Crombeen, Barberio · OTT Neil, Greening, Gryba, Wiercioch, Da Costa

  26. P1 11:18Shot by Ryan, saved by Bishop4v5
  27. P1 11:49Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bishop4v5
  28. P1 13:09Shot by Michalek, saved by Bishop
  29. P1 14:21Purcell: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Filppula, Purcell, Killorn, Barberio · OTT Michalek, Gryba, Wiercioch, Conacher, Zibanejad

  30. P1 14:32Goal by Johnson (Hedman)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Johnson, Hedman, Palat · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  31. P1 14:52Shot by Spezza, saved by Bishop4v5
  32. P1 15:10Shot by Spezza, saved by Bishop4v5
  33. P1 15:12Goal by Karlsson (MacArthur, Spezza)4v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Thompson, Hedman, Brown · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  34. P1 17:53Shot by Condra, saved by Bishop
  35. P1 0:00Period end
  36. P2 0:00Period start
  37. P2 1:47Shot by Filppula, saved by Anderson
  38. P2 3:30Goal by Crombeen (Hedman, Filppula)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Malone, Filppula, Crombeen, Aulie, Hedman · OTT Phillips, Neil, Greening, Gryba, Da Costa

  39. P2 3:47Shot by St. Louis, saved by Anderson
  40. P2 6:40Shot by Brown, saved by Anderson
  41. P2 7:37Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  42. P2 9:28Shot by Greening, saved by Bishop
  43. P2 10:36Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Bishop
  44. P2 10:59Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop
  45. P2 13:47Shot by Michalek, saved by Bishop
  46. P2 14:16Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  47. P2 14:20Shot by Crombeen, saved by Anderson
  48. P2 14:36Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson
  49. P2 14:53Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop
  50. P2 15:07Purcell: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Salo, Filppula, Purcell, Killorn, Hedman · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson, Cowen

  51. P2 16:57Goal by MacArthur (Spezza, Ryan)4v5+25 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Carle, Johnson, Gudas, Palat · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson

  52. P2 17:28Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 0:27Shot by Greening, saved by Bishop
  56. P3 0:57Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop
  57. P3 1:17Shot by Phillips, saved by Bishop
  58. P3 3:58Shot by Conacher, saved by Bishop
  59. P3 4:41Shot by Filppula, saved by Anderson
  60. P3 5:26Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson
  61. P3 5:31Goal by Palat (St. Louis, Hedman)+30 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Salo, St. Louis, Johnson, Hedman, Palat · OTT Phillips, Spezza, Michalek, Zibanejad, Ceci

  62. P3 6:37Shot by Conacher, saved by Bishop
  63. P3 7:08Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop
  64. P3 8:28Shot by Cowen, saved by Bishop
  65. P3 8:33Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop
  66. P3 9:07Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bishop
  67. P3 11:35Shot by Brown, saved by Anderson
  68. P3 11:55Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bishop
  69. P3 12:09Shot by Ryan, saved by Bishop
  70. P3 12:56Phillips: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Salo, St. Louis, Johnson, Hedman, Palat · OTT Phillips, Spezza, Michalek, Zibanejad, Ceci

  71. P3 16:56Shot by Spezza, saved by Bishop
  72. P3 17:11Shot by Greening, saved by Bishop
  73. P3 17:42Goal by Neil (Smith, Karlsson)+44 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Thompson, Purcell, Killorn, Barberio · OTT Neil, Greening, Smith, Karlsson, Cowen

  74. P3 18:38Shot by Michalek, saved by Bishop
  75. P3 19:28Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  76. P3 19:56Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop
  77. P3 0:00Period end
  78. OT 0:00Period start
  79. OT 0:10Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson4v4
  80. OT 0:31Shot by Smith, saved by Bishop4v4
  81. OT 1:22Shot by Filppula, saved by Anderson4v4
  82. OT 3:04Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson4v4
  83. OT 3:09Ceci: Tripping (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Johnson, Hedman, Gudas, Palat · OTT Cowen, Conacher, Da Costa, Ceci

  84. OT 3:21Shot by Purcell, saved by Anderson4v3
  85. OT 3:49Shot by Purcell, saved by Anderson4v3
  86. OT 4:01Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson4v3
  87. OT 4:14Shot by Turris, saved by Bishop4v3
  88. OT 4:57Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson4v3
  89. OT 5:00Period end
  90. SO Period start
  91. SO Goal by Kucherov, unassistedother
  92. SO Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Bishopother
  93. SO Shot by Filppula, saved by Andersonother
  94. SO Shot by Spezza, saved by Bishopother
  95. SO Shot by St. Louis, saved by Andersonother
  96. SO Shot by Turris, saved by Bishopother
  97. SO Period end
  98. SO Final