Sat, Jan 25, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 214 | 06 | 227 |
| TBL | 011 | 37 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:15TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:48TBLMark BarberioAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 18:04TBLValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: JT Brown, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 18:33COLJohn MitchellAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 19:03COLTyson BarrieAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 14:38TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 16:55TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Victor Hedman, Sami Salo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:45COLPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P1 6:29COLPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:18TBLB.J. Crombeen: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:24TBLMark Barberio: Holding2 min
- P2 1:22TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:55COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Stastny – Landeskog13:52
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:59
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Talbot – MacKinnon11:13
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene11:57
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 14–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Hejda2:04
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson15:56
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
- Benoit – Barrie2:12
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:21
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 3–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn9:35
xG 0.33–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Filppula – Kucherov – Brown2:55
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown4:38
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio11:29
xG 0.41–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Aulie – Hedman5:39
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman6:52
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).