Sat, Feb 1, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 18 | 111 | 326 |
| TOR | 09 | 216 | 411 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07OTTChris NeilAssists: Jared Cowen, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:46OTTColin GreeningAssists: Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 13:01TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 14:39TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 7:34TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 9:06OTTChris NeilAssists: Cody Ceci, Colin Greening · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 14:02TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 18:37TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.36 xG3–5
- P3 19:31TORNazem KadriENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:44TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:44OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:39OTTCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:12OTTCory Conacher: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:24OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:59OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:59TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:15OTTMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:06TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:39TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:02OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith8:16
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Spezza – Condra – Conacher2:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris13:08
xG 0.47–0.71 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad7:50
xG 0.25–0.99 (20%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:35
xG 0.46–0.74 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Methot – Gryba13:09
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Cowen16:54
xG 0.47–0.96 (33%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:47
xG 1.18–0.36 (77%)attempts 12–14goals 3–0
- Bodie – Raymond – McKegg3:43
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McClement – Bodie – Raymond6:36
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri12:28
xG 0.52–0.70 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Rielly11:43
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:14
xG 1.00–0.74 (58%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Franson – Gardiner14:25
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).