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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 1, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:14Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  3. P1 1:28Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bernier
  4. P1 2:04Shot by Michalek, saved by Bernier
  5. P1 3:27Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  6. P1 4:44Kessel: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Gleason, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly · OTT Neil, Methot, Greening, Gryba, Smith

  7. P1 4:44Gryba: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Gleason, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly · OTT Neil, Methot, Greening, Gryba, Smith

  8. P1 5:55Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Bernier4v4
  9. P1 7:12Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  10. P1 7:47Shot by Greening, saved by Bernier
  11. P1 8:22Shot by Spezza, saved by Bernier
  12. P1 11:37Shot by Turris, saved by Bernier
  13. P1 12:39Conacher: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Raymond, Franson, Kulemin, Gardiner, Kadri · OTT Neil, Smith, Wiercioch, Conacher, Ceci

  14. P1 15:12Conacher: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Bodie, Gunnarsson, Kadri · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Wiercioch, Conacher, Ceci

  15. P1 15:44Shot by Bozak, saved by Anderson5v4
  16. P1 16:21Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson5v4
  17. P1 18:32Shot by Gardiner, saved by Anderson
  18. P1 19:07Goal by Neil (Cowen, Gryba)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Franson, Kulemin, Kadri, Rielly · OTT Neil, Condra, Smith, Karlsson, Cowen

  19. P1 19:20Shot by Raymond, saved by Anderson
  20. P1 19:24Karlsson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Raymond, Gunnarsson, Kadri · OTT Ryan, Condra, Karlsson, Cowen, Zibanejad

  21. P1 19:48Shot by Raymond, saved by Anderson5v4
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P1 7:13Shot by Kulemin, saved by Anderson
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 1:40Shot by Ceci, saved by Bernier
  26. P2 1:43Shot by Michalek, saved by Bernier
  27. P2 2:58Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  28. P2 2:59Kassian: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Orr, Gleason, McClement, McLaren, Rielly · OTT Neil, Methot, Kassian, Gryba, Smith

  29. P2 2:59McLaren: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Orr, Gleason, McClement, McLaren, Rielly · OTT Neil, Methot, Kassian, Gryba, Smith

  30. P2 3:28Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  31. P2 3:36Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  32. P2 3:50Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson
  33. P2 4:22Shot by Raymond, saved by Anderson
  34. P2 4:28Shot by Franson, saved by Anderson
  35. P2 6:46Goal by Greening (Neil)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McClement, Bodie, Raymond, Franson, Gardiner · OTT Neil, Greening, Smith, Karlsson, Cowen

  36. P2 7:45Shot by McKegg, saved by Anderson
  37. P2 9:01Shot by Gleason, saved by Anderson
  38. P2 9:58Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  39. P2 10:27Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  40. P2 10:39Shot by Ryan, saved by Bernier
  41. P2 11:50Shot by Gryba, saved by Bernier
  42. P2 12:49Shot by Bodie, saved by Anderson
  43. P2 13:01Goal by Kessel (van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak · OTT MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson, Cowen

  44. P2 14:39Goal by Lupul (Kadri)+21 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Franson, Kulemin, Gardiner, Kadri · OTT Ryan, Greening, Smith, Cowen, Ceci

  45. P2 15:51Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson
  46. P2 16:15Zibanejad: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Kadri · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Cowen, Zibanejad

  47. P2 16:35Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson5v4
  48. P2 17:27Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson5v4
  49. P2 18:06Phaneuf: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak · OTT Methot, Gryba, Condra, Smith

  50. P2 19:02Shot by Ryan, saved by Bernier4v5
  51. P2 19:37Shot by MacArthur, saved by Bernier4v5
  52. P2 0:00Shot by Ceci, saved by Bernier4v5
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 1:17Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  56. P3 2:01Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Bernier
  57. P3 2:22Shot by MacArthur, saved by Bernier
  58. P3 2:41Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  59. P3 4:39Gunnarsson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak · OTT MacArthur, Methot, Gryba, Condra, Turris

  60. P3 5:19Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Bernier4v5
  61. P3 5:40Shot by McClement, saved by Anderson4v5
  62. P3 6:02Wiercioch: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Raymond, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Turris, Wiercioch, Ceci

  63. P3 6:30Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson4v4
  64. P3 7:34Goal by Kessel (Rielly, Franson)5v4+29 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly · OTT Methot, Greening, Gryba, Condra

  65. P3 8:11Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Bernier
  66. P3 8:56Shot by Greening, saved by Bernier
  67. P3 9:06Goal by Neil (Ceci, Greening)+32 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Kadri · OTT Neil, Greening, Smith, Wiercioch, Ceci

  68. P3 9:20Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Bernier
  69. P3 10:05Shot by Methot, saved by Bernier
  70. P3 10:17Shot by Neil, saved by Bernier
  71. P3 13:03Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  72. P3 14:02Goal by Kessel (Bozak)+37 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gleason, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Gryba, Zibanejad

  73. P3 15:49Shot by Bozak, saved by Anderson
  74. P3 16:55Shot by Karlsson, saved by Bernier
  75. P3 18:35Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Anderson
  76. P3 18:37Goal by Bozak (Kessel, van Riemsdyk)+5 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Gunnarsson, Bozak · OTT Spezza, Michalek, Wiercioch, Zibanejad, Ceci

  77. P3 19:31Goal by Kadri, unassisted5v60 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Kadri · OTT Spezza, MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson, Cowen

  78. P3 19:58Shot by Condra, saved by Bernier
  79. P3 0:00Period end
  80. P3 0:00Final