Thu, Feb 6, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 110 | 314 | 436 |
| TBL | 09 | 014 | 111 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:57TORMason RaymondAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 2:19TORJay McClementGWGAssists: David Clarkson, Joffrey Lupul · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 8:10TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 10:28TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Martin St. Louis, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 17:08TORTyler BozakENAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:57TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 18:17TORTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:17TORTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:17TORJonathan Bernier: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:17TBLCedrick Desjardins: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 18:17TBLRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:17TBLJT Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:17TORTim Gleason: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak16:22
xG 0.88–0.73 (55%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- McClement – Raymond – Kulemin2:21
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kulemin11:14
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- McClement – Lupul – Clarkson2:10
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson13:38
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Gleason – Phaneuf2:13
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ranger – Rielly3:42
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kucherov – Brown8:40
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson4:53
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn10:12
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:53
xG 0.47–0.82 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Barberio4:09
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Cote – Hedman2:51
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Cote5:15
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).