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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Winnipeg Jets 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)

Away

Winnipeg Jets

3

Final

Shootout

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsWPG wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
WPG1811119030331
STL2706110032426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:39STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Derek Roy · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:33WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:38STLDerek RoyAssists: Brenden Morrow, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:22WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Chris Thorburn · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
  5. P3 0:34STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Barret Jackman, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:43WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. STL Alexander Steen stopped
  2. 2. WPG Bryan Little stopped
  3. 3. STL T.J. Oshie scored
  4. 4. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
  5. 5. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 2:32WPGJames Wright: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:31WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 10:33STLBrenden Morrow: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P1 12:35STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 12:35WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 18:47WPGMark Scheifele: Cross checking2 min
  7. P1 18:50STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 18:50STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 18:50WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 2:14STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 5:00WPGOlli Jokinen: High sticking double minor4 min
  12. P2 8:00WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 9:43STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 13:18STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 18:08WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
  16. OT 4:59WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WPG00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
48% to win52% to win
← WPG attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Little
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WPGSTL
31Shots on goal26
1.9Expected goals1.7
51Shot attempts49
28Faceoffs won33
5Power plays8
26Penalty minutes20
20Hits18
15Blocked shots12
4Giveaways3
5Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. bestThorburn – Wheeler – Scheifele9:54

    xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1

  2. Ladd – Little – Frolik11:21

    xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestPardy – Postma4:07

    xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0

  2. Enstrom – Bogosian10:39

    xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1

  3. Stuart – Trouba11:51

    xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSteen – Backes – Stewart2:55

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  2. Oshie – Berglund – Schwartz2:55

    xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  3. Steen – Backes – Schwartz4:40

    xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  4. Lapierre – Reaves – Stewart3:04

    xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo8:40

    xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0

  2. Bouwmeester – Polak5:07

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  3. Jackman – Shattenkirk9:12

    xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 1.7 xGWPG 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLWPG

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #113 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.41 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
WPG 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsWPG wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).