Sun, Mar 2, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 210 | 011 | 334 |
| COL | 29 | 013 | 413 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49TBLTom PyattAssists: Teddy Purcell, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:19COLTyson BarrieAssists: Paul Stastny, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:01COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: PA Parenteau, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:40TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Michael Kostka, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:37TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Michael Kostka · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 5:12COLNick HoldenPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 16:05COLErik JohnsonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:06COLNick HoldenENAssists: Max Talbot · Backhand, 0.42 xG3–5
- P3 19:53COLPaul StastnyENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:47COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:32TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:31TBLSami Salo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:55TBLAlex Killorn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:54COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Namestnikov – Brown6:52
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Purcell – Killorn10:42
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Malone – Thompson – Brown2:31
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:29
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Barberio8:55
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas5:41
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Salo – Brewer2:40
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – O'Reilly – Duchene11:36
xG 1.45–0.09 (94%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche5:39
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:43
xG 0.50–0.72 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn9:38
xG 0.06–0.96 (6%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson15:51
xG 1.28–0.58 (69%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Hejda – Holden2:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie14:25
xG 0.69–0.96 (42%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).