Mon, Mar 3, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 09 | 19 | 223 |
| DAL | 016 | 211 | 112 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:17BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Matt Moulson · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:30DALJordie BennAssists: Ray Whitney, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:54DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 3:23BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P3 10:25DALAlex ChiassonPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:39BUFJohn Scott: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:19BUFCody Hodgson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:01BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:32BUFCody McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:57DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:40BUFMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:40BUFMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Ennis9:03
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Leino2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno2:44
xG 0.28–0.37 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Hodgson5:47
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain2:07
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Weber11:22
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Myers14:57
xG 0.42–1.04 (29%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Benn – Seguin7:06
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Peverley – Eakin3:49
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt8:45
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Eakin – Nichushkin8:16
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon13:13
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Daley – Goligoski16:27
xG 1.04–0.98 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Connauton11:15
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).