Fri, Mar 7, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 015 | 011 | 418 | 444 |
| CAR | 16 | 011 | 17 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:49CARJordan StaalAssists: Alexander Semin, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 7:25NYRRyan McDonaghSHAssists: Rick Nash · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 12:07CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 13:24NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, John Moore · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 17:14NYRDerek StepanPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:19NYRCarl HagelinENAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:55CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:04CARDrayson Bowman: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:52NYRCarl Hagelin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:09NYRBrian Boyle: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:29NYRDaniel Carcillo: Interference2 min
- P3 6:36NYRMats Zuccarello: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:07NYRAnton Stralman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:16NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:16CARBrett Bellemore: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:30CARRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:02CARBrett Bellemore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Richards – Hagelin7:39
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo5:48
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider6:03
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello10:16
xG 0.62–0.93 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman13:19
xG 1.14–0.03 (98%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Moore7:57
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal2:00
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Nash9:15
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Staal7:20
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm8:45
xG 0.18–0.80 (18%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore14:09
xG 0.85–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Liles – Sekera9:24
xG 0.66–0.36 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Harrison – Murphy9:45
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).