Fri, Mar 7, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 0, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 05 | 012 | 025 |
| FLA | 114 | 016 | 114 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:11FLAJesse WinchesterPPGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 4:04FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:41BUFMatt D'Agostini: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:16BUFMarcus Foligno: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 6:16BUFMarcus Foligno: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 10:27BUFVille Leino: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18BUFDrew Stafford: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 13:04FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:41BUFTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:18BUFMatt D'Agostini: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:57BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P3 14:15BUFLuke Adam: Interference2 min
- P3 19:00FLAEd Jovanovski: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ellis – Adam – Flynn2:20
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Deslauriers6:28
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis8:17
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Adam – Flynn3:23
xG 0.01–0.33 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer4:06
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tallinder – McBain6:29
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Myers3:09
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad12:06
xG 0.87–0.31 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Winchester – Pirri – Huberdeau8:51
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck7:01
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Gomez – Barch – Hayes4:25
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert13:19
xG 0.95–0.33 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson11:37
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Kulikov11:15
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).