Mon, Mar 10, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 016 | 311 | 010 | 15 | 442 |
| OTT | 07 | 08 | 319 | 03 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:20NSHNick SpalingAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 10:00NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Seth Jones · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 17:32NSHEric NystromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 7:55OTTJared CowenAssists: Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 10:34OTTMarc MethotAssists: Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:53OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Ales Hemsky, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:49NSHSeth JonesGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:06OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:06NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:26OTTMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P2 2:06NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:43OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:55OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Wilson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Spaling2:16
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Wilson – Smith7:43
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg3:20
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Spaling – Wilson – Smith3:17
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Ellis16:46
xG 0.94–0.64 (59%)attempts 20–20goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones8:42
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Weber – Josi23:54
xG 1.04–1.08 (49%)attempts 24–28goals 0–3
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Hoffman14:26
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith8:56
xG 0.18–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Zibanejad2:03
xG 0.01–0.02 (41%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Zibanejad5:21
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen7:17
xG 0.49–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Gryba – Cowen9:20
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gryba9:33
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).