Mon, Mar 10, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 03 | 19 | 28 | 00 | 1 | 420 |
| TBL | 19 | 111 | 18 | 03 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:26TBLTyler JohnsonSHAssists: Ondrej Palat, Eric Brewer · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:01PHXBrandon McMillanAssists: Keith Yandle, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 19:07TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Ryan Callahan, Keith Aulie · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:13PHXMartin EratUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 7:48PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Zbynek Michalek · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:22TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Ondrej Palat stopped
- 2. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 3. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 5. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:58TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26PHXMikkel Boedker: Holding2 min
- P1 16:53PHXShane Doan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:26TBLMark Barberio: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:49PHXBrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:19PHXMartin Erat: Interference2 min
- P3 7:41TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Ribeiro – McMillan12:15
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Halpern – Chipchura – Korpikoski6:00
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker5:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Vrbata – Miele8:11
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSummers – Gormley11:29
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:42
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone14:13
xG 0.59–1.26 (32%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Palat12:19
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Brown3:07
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Purcell – Killorn – Stamkos10:06
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Brown6:21
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Aulie7:57
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Brewer – Kostka3:27
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Barberio4:41
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).