Tue, Mar 11, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 06 | 19 | 221 |
| SJS | 214 | 217 | 217 | 648 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:23TORJake GardinerAssists: Mason Raymond · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:04SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:54SJSTommy WingelsGWGAssists: Justin Braun, James Sheppard · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 8:13SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 4:26SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Demers, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 14:56TORJake GardinerSHAssists: Mason Raymond, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 16:33SJSMartin HavlatAssists: James Sheppard, Tommy Wingels · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:26TORTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:26SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:36TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P2 10:15SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:04TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:04SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:13SJSJoe Pavelski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:46TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12TORJay McClement: Interference2 min
- P3 14:12TORTim Gleason: Interference2 min
- P3 14:12TORTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:12SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:56TORJoffrey Lupul: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:56SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:56TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:56TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:56TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – McClement – Bodie3:18
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Holland2:16
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri4:03
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:48
xG 0.52–0.76 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Gardiner2:05
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson7:56
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly2:21
xG 0.03–0.55 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Sheppard – Wingels10:21
xG 1.16–0.30 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto11:26
xG 0.62–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Burish – Brown – Desjardins5:58
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin10:41
xG 0.96–0.11 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers9:29
xG 0.90–0.16 (85%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Hannan – Braun9:29
xG 0.52–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).