Sat, Mar 22, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 8, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 48 | 314 | 831 |
| EDM | 18 | 011 | 06 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34EDMJeff PetryPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:29CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Michael Cammalleri, TJ Brodie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:13CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 5:20CGYMatt StajanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–1
- P2 6:00CGYPaul ByronAssists: Michael Cammalleri, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 7:18CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 4:50CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–1
- P3 5:27CGYKevin WestgarthAssists: Tyler Wotherspoon, Ladislav Smid · Tip-in, 0.04 xG7–1
- P3 13:19CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.03 xG8–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:49CGYKevin Westgarth: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:34CGYKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:34EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:01EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:48EDMJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:29CGYMikael Backlund: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:20EDMMark Fraser: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 14:05EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00EDMAnton Lander: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Agostino – Monahan12:06
xG 1.07–0.13 (89%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Glencross7:20
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Cammalleri – Byron – Backlund10:51
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Bouma9:27
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Wotherspoon14:56
xG 1.04–0.23 (82%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Russell – Butler13:07
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie10:04
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 10–4goals 5–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lander – Nugent-Hopkins7:31
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Hall8:18
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–3
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins3:39
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Jones – Gazdic8:13
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Marincin15:59
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Fraser – Klefbom14:34
xG 0.28–0.93 (23%)attempts 15–16goals 0–3
- Ference – Schultz12:38
xG 0.17–0.82 (17%)attempts 11–19goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).