Mon, Mar 24, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 114 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 432 |
| TBL | 17 | 114 | 112 | 05 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Colin Greening · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:07TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:12OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 8:56OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 13:26TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 5:44TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan Callahan · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 2. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:33OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P1 8:05TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:12TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:12OTTColin Greening: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:12TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:12OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:12TBLRyan Malone: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:21OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:58OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16OTTMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33OTTJared Cowen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:37OTTJason Spezza: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:56OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone11:16
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith9:15
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek10:21
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad4:53
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:16
xG 0.65–0.41 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Gryba – Cowen10:47
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci3:21
xG 0.03–0.04 (38%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Thompson – Pyatt7:43
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat11:54
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Brown7:02
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Purcell – Killorn – Stamkos11:20
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Kostka6:59
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Brewer – Gudas3:17
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas5:11
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).