Sat, Mar 29, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 013 | 110 | 11 | 433 |
| BUF | 28 | 012 | 19 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20BUFMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:07BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 17:52TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: JT Brown, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:14BUFCory ConacherENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–3
- P3 10:07TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–3
- OT 1:53TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:31TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P2 4:54TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:46BUFJohan Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:07TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:14BUFCory Conacher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14BUFMike Weber: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:59BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson7:05
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Palat4:05
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat10:42
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Brown8:33
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Kostka2:59
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Kostka9:21
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kostka – Hedman3:10
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Flynn – Girgensons11:36
xG 1.59–0.16 (91%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- D'Agostini – Foligno – Larsson12:31
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Conacher11:50
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Ellis – Scott – Deslauriers3:12
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Ristolainen16:32
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
- Tallinder – Ruhwedel11:20
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain13:21
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).