Sat, Mar 29, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 310 | 111 | 428 |
| TOR | 111 | 18 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57TORCody FransonAssists: Jake Gardiner, Jay McClement · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:05DETDarren HelmSHAssists: Joakim Andersson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:37DETGustav NyquistAssists: Johan Franzen, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 7:57DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Jakub Kindl, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 18:57TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 8:38DETDarren HelmAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:48DETDavid Legwand: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:09DETRiley Sheahan: Holding2 min
- P2 14:23TORDave Bolland: Interference2 min
- P2 14:23TORDave Bolland: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38DETTomas Tatar: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:24DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Helm – Andersson7:21
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Legwand – Franzen – Nyquist9:43
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco9:10
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Miller – Glendening8:52
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff6:38
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Quincey – Kindl2:05
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:19
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Bolland – Raymond3:17
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin4:08
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:10
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri6:56
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson11:21
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:57
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Rielly2:07
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).