Sun, Mar 30, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 221 | 06 | 340 |
| OTT | 213 | 19 | 315 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:23CGYMatt StajanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 19:37OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 3:59CGYPaul ByronAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 7:05CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 16:47OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 1:12OTTJared CowenGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:22OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Kyle Turris · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 18:39OTTKyle TurrisENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:11CGYKevin Westgarth: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:03OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P2 12:26CGYKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:26OTTMatt Kassian: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:26OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:26OTTMatt Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:44OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:53CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Hudler – Glencross10:09
xG 1.11–0.34 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Cammalleri – Byron – Backlund11:40
xG 0.71–0.75 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Galiardi5:03
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Monahan8:58
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie14:59
xG 1.21–0.81 (60%)attempts 11–20goals 2–2
- Russell – Butler19:16
xG 0.90–0.52 (64%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Billins10:13
xG 0.62–0.89 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone13:10
xG 0.97–0.41 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Neil – Smith – Hoffman3:44
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Zibanejad3:31
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:55
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen15:17
xG 1.55–1.21 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch4:46
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Phillips – Wiercioch11:22
xG 0.36–0.44 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).