Thu, Apr 3, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Calgary Flames 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 28 | 010 | 27 | 425 |
| TBL | 05 | 115 | 012 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:20CGYMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:35CGYKevin WestgarthGWGAssists: Chris Breen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 15:56TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Matt Carle, Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:04CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 19:44CGYCurtis GlencrossENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:26CGYTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:20TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 9:36CGYChris Butler: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:27CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:41TBLEric Brewer: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMcGrattan – Galiardi – Van Brabant8:16
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Bouma – Hanowski4:55
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Backlund11:25
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Glencross – Colborne – Monahan11:11
xG 0.15–0.74 (17%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBreen – Billins6:46
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie19:55
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Russell – Butler18:24
xG 0.19–0.96 (16%)attempts 9–28goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Palat11:13
xG 0.62–0.08 (88%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov15:57
xG 0.68–0.20 (78%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Brown12:04
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson5:40
xG 0.04–0.48 (7%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Hedman5:48
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas3:33
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Carle8:23
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).