Tue, Apr 8, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 011 | 07 | 128 |
| NYR | 110 | 211 | 115 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Brett Bellemore · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 15:44NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:50NYRBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 13:36NYRBrad RichardsPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 4:38NYRDerek StepanAssists: Martin St. Louis, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:35CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08CARJeff Skinner: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:26CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Semin – Staal – Loktionov12:50
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Staal – Bowman – Loktionov2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal13:57
xG 0.90–0.95 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman5:42
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk18:50
xG 0.95–0.66 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Liles – Bellemore14:27
xG 0.91–0.90 (50%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Harrison – Murphy14:29
xG 0.57–0.95 (38%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Nash – Stepan11:59
xG 1.08–0.37 (75%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett10:37
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Hagelin – Fast13:00
xG 0.68–0.82 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello13:37
xG 0.98–1.12 (46%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman19:10
xG 1.34–0.55 (71%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
- Girardi – Moore18:02
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Klein – Diaz11:26
xG 0.68–1.06 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).