Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 115 | 110 | 19 | 334 |
| COL | 09 | 011 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:50MINJason ZuckerAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 19:56MINZach PariseENAssists: Matt Cooke, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:46MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:14COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:29COLMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:23COLErik Johnson: Elbowing5 min
- P2 2:23COLErik Johnson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 3:18MINThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:39MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:48MINRyan Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:13COLTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:11COLGabriel Landeskog: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:20MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:20COLDaniel Brière: Holding2 min
- P3 17:27MINMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund9:52
xG 0.56–0.22 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Zucker3:05
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter6:04
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Cooke – Koivu – Vanek2:43
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin10:32
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Dumba – Folin3:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon10:10
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Brière – Tanguay – MacKinnon7:12
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche5:38
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – Everberg7:20
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Iginla – McGinn – Duchene8:59
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Hejda2:48
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hejda – Barrie7:40
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie4:05
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).