Fri, Oct 17, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 1, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 111 | 08 | 135 |
| BUF | 03 | 09 | 014 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:01FLASean BergenheimGWGAssists: Brad Boyes, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:18FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:37BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:51BUFJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:14FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:02BUFZemgus Girgensons: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:02FLAScottie Upshall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:30BUFAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min
- P2 17:20FLAJimmy Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:52BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Interference2 min
- P3 6:46FLAErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:58FLADave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:22BUFChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:53
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–0goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boyes – Bergenheim4:43
xG 0.45–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland3:09
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Barkov7:00
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad13:06
xG 1.12–0.12 (90%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov10:52
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson10:33
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Mitchell – Girgensons5:18
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McCormick – Deslauriers – Reinhart6:23
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Mitchell – Girgensons2:42
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno10:16
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benoit – Ristolainen10:27
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber10:38
xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Benoit – Meszaros2:58
xG 0.09–0.49 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).