Sun, Nov 2, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 6, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 212 | 36 | 630 |
| WSH | 314 | 07 | 216 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14ARIAntoine VermettePPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 8:03WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:49WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 16:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 4:04ARIMichael StoneAssists: Chris Summers, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:55ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 3:05ARISam GagnerAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 4:33ARIShane DoanUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 15:33ARITobias RiederGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 18:07WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG6–4
- P3 19:33WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.26 xG6–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:35ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:35WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:37WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P1 15:23ARIJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:03WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:06WSHAlex Ovechkin: Charging2 min
- P2 16:23WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:23ARIBrandon McMillan: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ARIB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:23ARIMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:18WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:35ARISam Gagner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Gagner – Boedker3:50
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Erat – Hanzal – Hodgman8:03
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder10:55
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McMillan2:37
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Murphy8:20
xG 0.38–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Summers – Murphy2:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone6:52
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:37
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Chimera – Fehr – Burakovsky3:20
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:09
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Schmidt12:13
xG 0.72–0.29 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner11:48
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson14:05
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).