Sun, Nov 9, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 28 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 430 |
| DET | 18 | 13 | 16 | 03 | 0 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:53TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 2:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 6:02TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 11:37DETDarren HelmPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 8:49DETGustav NyquistAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 2. TBL Ryan Callahan scored
- 3. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 4. TBL Matt Carle stopped
- 5. DET Darren Helm stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:10TBLRyan Callahan: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 6:59TBLBen Bishop: Interference2 min
- P1 11:16DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:25DETLuke Glendening: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:20DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
- P1 19:02TBLRadko Gudas: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:41DETRiley Sheahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:34TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48DETKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov10:45
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos13:33
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown7:30
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Paquette – Drouin8:42
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman17:24
xG 0.86–0.21 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Garrison – Gudas11:36
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas3:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan10:24
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Helm – Nestrasil5:48
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening10:05
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist12:16
xG 0.23–0.99 (19%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Quincey – Kindl9:57
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Kindl – Smith2:39
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:27
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).