Tue, Nov 11, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 010 | 09 | 033 |
| NYR | 316 | 113 | 16 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:59NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Rick Nash, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 14:47NYRKevin KleinAssists: Kevin Hayes, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 10:49NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 7:45NYRRick NashSHAssists: Derek Stepan, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:57PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P1 19:11NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:37PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:15PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:05NYRDan Girardi: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:33NYRTanner Glass: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:45PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby4:40
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Hornqvist5:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Bennett3:58
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Malkin – Comeau3:49
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres12:42
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Ehrhoff2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Ehrhoff2:44
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Nash – Brassard8:26
xG 0.50–0.44 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Hagelin – Hayes9:34
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast9:32
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:19
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Moore16:08
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Kostka10:11
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi14:43
xG 0.69–0.72 (49%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).