Thu, Nov 13, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 28 | 08 | 323 |
| CGY | 110 | 311 | 14 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06CGYPaul ByronAssists: Sven Baertschi · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:43ARIShane DoanAssists: Antoine Vermette, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:03CGYPaul ByronAssists: Sven Baertschi, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:35CGYSean MonahanAssists: Curtis Glencross, David Jones · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 9:58ARIAntoine VermettePPAssists: Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 13:54ARIJoe VitaleAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 16:23CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 12:23CGYDavid JonesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:55ARILauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
- P1 8:10CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:10ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:20ARISam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:20CGYJosh Jooris: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:32CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:32ARIKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:27ARIMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Korpikoski – Boedker5:18
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – Klinkhammer4:23
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Doan – Gagner – Rieder6:36
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Chipchura – Korpikoski – Gagner4:42
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson17:33
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Stone11:58
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Yandle – Murphy16:07
xG 0.22–1.23 (15%)attempts 14–16goals 0–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Glencross – Monahan13:23
xG 1.07–0.31 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Byron – Baertschi – Jooris8:17
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- McGrattan – Bouma – Reinhart5:25
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund9:53
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid11:05
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:15
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell18:10
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 10–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).