Sat, Nov 15, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 210 | 013 | 234 |
| BUF | 214 | 212 | 29 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:40BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
- P1 18:33BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHAssists: Brian Flynn, Tyson Strachan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 7:10BUFDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 18:41TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Cody Franson, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 18:57BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Tyler Ennis, Mike Weber · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 19:41TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 1:10BUFTyler MyersAssists: Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 4:42BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Cody McCormick · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:09TORDavid Clarkson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 17:43BUFNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:53TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:32BUFTorrey Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P3 2:40BUFTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:26BUFCody Hodgson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:09BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09TORJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against McCormick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Kadri – Leivo3:50
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Holland – Panik5:51
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Panik – Leivo5:57
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Smith3:49
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson11:30
xG 1.39–0.85 (62%)attempts 21–10goals 1–2
- Gardiner – Rielly2:02
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Robidas – Gardiner6:47
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons11:46
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
- McCormick – Stafford – Deslauriers8:52
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno11:49
xG 0.63–0.79 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn8:21
xG 0.18–0.50 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Weber12:31
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Strachan – Myers16:28
xG 1.01–1.00 (50%)attempts 10–21goals 2–2
- Ristolainen – Zadorov14:47
xG 0.50–0.99 (34%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).