Sat, Nov 15, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 07 | 09 | 227 |
| TBL | 313 | 110 | 15 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41NYIBrock NelsonAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:41TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Jason Garrison, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:22NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 13:46TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 15:29TBLCedric PaquetteGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 1:39TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 15:34TBLRadko GudasAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:19TBLRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P1 11:44NYITravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:34NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45TBLOndrej Palat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:11TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:15NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:22TBLSteven Stamkos: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:48TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:48NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome8:24
xG 0.42–0.29 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin11:07
xG 0.73–0.68 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares13:15
xG 0.23–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Conacher8:07
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy13:54
xG 0.88–0.16 (85%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:36
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan16:33
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 11–19goals 1–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Stamkos13:55
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Paquette8:34
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown7:33
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:32
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr13:23
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Brewer – Gudas13:48
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Carle – Stralman14:19
xG 0.21–0.65 (24%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).