Wed, Nov 26, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 310 | 03 | 00 | 327 |
| PIT | 27 | 112 | 05 | 12 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26PITBlake ComeauAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:39PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 8:11TORLeo KomarovAssists: Mike Santorelli, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:48TORLeo KomarovAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mike Santorelli · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 13:19PITBlake ComeauAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 16:21TORTyler BozakSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:53PITBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:15PITNick Spaling: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:11TORDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:36PITBrandon Sutter: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:21TORStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:33TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:33PITPatric Hornqvist: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:19TORMorgan Rielly: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Santorelli – Komarov – Kadri12:56
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Lupul – Booth – Kadri2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – Holland9:48
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lupul – Booth – Smith6:31
xG 0.02–0.21 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Holzer13:59
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly14:10
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Franson16:15
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Sutter – Megna10:35
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Spaling12:57
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Adams – Goc – Sill3:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Comeau13:16
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang16:24
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Maatta16:30
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Despres10:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).