Tue, Dec 9, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 010 | 215 | 336 |
| COL | 08 | 08 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 18:10NSHGabriel BourqueENAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–0
- P3 19:02NSHJames NealENAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:53COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:59COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:17NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min
- P2 3:05NSHRyan Ellis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:10COLPaul Carey: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:12COLAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min
- P2 19:37COLJarome Iginla: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:23NSHMattias Ekholm: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:23COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Nystrom – Bourque3:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith7:38
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg9:39
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wilson – Jarnkrok6:38
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Jones8:25
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm16:35
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:05
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 12–29goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:00
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Duchene8:11
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – McLeod10:31
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Stollery5:03
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Redmond2:26
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson11:56
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).