Thu, Dec 11, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 216 | 118 | 345 |
| BUF | 06 | 26 | 27 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:34BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 11:31CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:41BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Drew Stafford, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 17:06CGYDavid JonesAssists: Curtis Glencross, Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 3:14CGYSean MonahanAssists: Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 7:59BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Tyler Ennis, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 12:31BUFMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Zemgus Girgensons · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:20BUFJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:57CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 1:51CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:31BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:59BUFChris Stewart: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:59CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:01BUFMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:13BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestByron – Colborne – Monahan12:18
xG 0.46–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Jooris6:16
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund5:10
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Granlund3:34
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell16:28
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz7:40
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Wideman – Giordano2:15
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons15:23
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Deslauriers4:05
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Stewart – Foligno11:59
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Gionta – Mitchell – Flynn12:29
xG 0.14–0.36 (29%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benoit – Weber12:49
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov14:00
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Gorges – Myers18:40
xG 0.37–0.77 (33%)attempts 15–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).