Tue, Dec 16, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 27 | 29 | 17 | 523 |
| CGY | 08 | 116 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:22NYRRick NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:52NYRChris KreiderPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–0
- P2 3:06NYRRick NashSHGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 11:15NYRDerek StepanAssists: Martin St. Louis, Henrik Lundqvist · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 11:56CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mark Giordano, Matt Stajan · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 16:59NYRCarl HagelinENAssists: Kevin Hayes, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.61 xG5–1
- P3 18:45CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:56CGYDavid Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00CGYJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44NYRLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:41NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:41CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:50NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:46CGYRaphael Diaz: Holding2 min
- P3 17:54NYRMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:38NYRLee Stempniak: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Fast9:05
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Miller7:59
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:32
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Hagelin – Hayes9:58
xG 0.03–0.38 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Hunwick6:45
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Boyle – Staal7:53
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hunwick7:11
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Colborne – Monahan12:18
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Glencross – Byron – Granlund11:01
xG 0.17–0.22 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Stajan – Raymond – Bouma7:46
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Jooris11:16
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Diaz11:35
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Diaz3:19
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell14:20
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).