Sat, Dec 27, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 06 | 111 | 126 |
| TBL | 112 | 012 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 4:53TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 14:04CARRiley NashAssists: Andrej Sekera, Eric Staal · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:29CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:33TBLRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P1 11:36TBLRyan Callahan: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:41CARElias Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:39TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:05CARBrad Malone: Holding2 min
- P3 8:15CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:35TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:35CARTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:14CARCam Ward: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:41CAREric Staal: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Gerbe – Nash4:02
xG 0.75–0.08 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:03
xG 0.26–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Terry3:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nash – Malone4:24
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk13:27
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 13–25goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk2:35
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Liles11:13
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov9:51
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Connolly – Paquette9:26
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown5:21
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn10:32
xG 0.62–0.80 (43%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr13:16
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Sustr2:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Barberio – Gudas12:26
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).